Serenity · X推文

16:10 07-30

Leopold 融资引发市场评论，$BE、$SNDK、$SHAZ 等七月大幅回撤

@aleabitoreddit 帖子 There's a lot of stupid commentary around Leopold raising funds. After names like $BE, $SNDK, $SHAZ, and others all had very sharp drawdowns in July. Just remember... here's a man in finance that's 1. 6'5 2. Blue Eyes 3. Hedge Fund Probably better looking than you, and was up

关于 Leopold 融资的评论很多很蠢。记住，$BE、$SNDK、$SHAZ 等股票在七月都经历了急剧回撤。此人身高6英尺5英寸，蓝眼睛，对冲基金背景，可能比你好看，而且业绩不错。

记住，此人身高6尺5，蓝眼睛，对冲基金背景，可能比你好看，而且业绩不错。

15:40 07-30

POET光学中介层更新：Sivers与POET生产时间线延至2026年底

@aleabitoreddit 帖子 @A22GEO The $POET optical interposer piece is actually a very interesting update and talks about $SIVE. Since it's a material timeline upgrade wording for "production" EOY 2026, for Sivers + Poet. Back when Sivers did their PR it was "production readiness" https://t.co/EHkOogR39K

推文指出，POET的光学中介层更新实际上非常有趣，并提及了Sivers。由于材料时间线升级为“生产”阶段，Sivers和POET的生产目标定在2026年底。此前Sivers的新闻稿中用的是“生产就绪”。

POET的光学中介层更新实际上非常有趣，并提及了Sivers。

15:26 07-30

AAOI 接近 1 倍年化远期收入/市值，POET 大幅下跌

@aleabitoreddit 帖子 @WangHou4128 I don't think I (or anyone else) can accurately call the bottom. Otherwise they would just do weekly options if they knew. It's hard to see some of the names drop any lower though, like $AAOI is close to 1x annualized fwd revenue/MC. $POET dropped so much that it's roughly

作者认为无法准确预测底部，否则直接做周期权。但一些标的难以再跌，如 $AAOI 接近 1 倍年化远期收入/市值，$POET 跌幅巨大。

很难看到一些标的再跌，比如 $AAOI 接近 1 倍年化远期收入/市值。

15:03 07-30

宇树科技IPO估值60亿美元，相对Figure更具吸引力

@aleabitoreddit 帖子 @jRTSGrTQwM1469 Very favorable view on Unitree Robotics, since they're one of the global leaders right now. The $6B IPO is extremely attractive to me, relative to Figure in the US (which is valued at $39B). Since Unitree is much further ahead in commercialization. But coming from a Western

作者非常看好宇树机器人，认为其是全球领导者之一。60亿美元的IPO估值相对于美国Figure的390亿美元极具吸引力，因为宇树在商业化方面领先得多。

60亿美元的IPO估值相对于美国Figure的390亿美元极具吸引力，因为宇树在商业化方面领先得多。

14:52 07-30

$FORM 财报：CPO 系统收入翻倍，2026 年指引上调

@aleabitoreddit 帖子 Just some interesting takeaways from $FORM earnings call on CPO: Since they attributed systems revenue nearly doubled due to: "accelerating growth in co-packaged optics or CPO". Q1 2026: "we now expect 2026 CPO revenues to come in at the high end of the $10 million to $20 https://t.co/qLBzj5KeMD

$FORM 在财报电话会上指出，其系统收入几乎翻倍，主要得益于共封装光学（CPO）的加速增长。公司预计 2026 财年第一季度 CPO 收入将落在 1000 万至 2000 万美元区间的高端。

系统收入几乎翻倍，归因于共封装光学（CPO）的加速增长。

07:33 07-30

微软资本支出预期不变，仅会计分类调整

@aleabitoreddit 帖子 @Jespabe Not really, it's accounting framing. Microsoft investment expectations are the same but it's $175B for 2026 instead of $190B for 2026 because of how they reclassified DC leases. So roughly the same projections.

针对微软投资预期，作者指出并非真正减少，而是会计框架调整。2026年预期从1900亿美元降至1750亿美元，仅因数据中心租赁重新分类，实际预测大致相同。

微软投资预期不变，只是会计框架调整，2026年从1900亿降至1750亿因租赁重新分类。

07:28 07-30

抛售已锁定GW级算力的Neoclouds令人费解

@aleabitoreddit 帖子 @og_mcleod Selling off neoclouds, that has secured GW-scale compute capacity... While there's hyperscaler-wide compute shortages will be an engima to me.

作者表示，在超大规模云服务商普遍面临算力短缺的情况下，抛售已确保GW级算力容量的Neoclouds（如$NBIS）令人难以理解。

在超大规模云服务商普遍算力短缺时，抛售已锁定GW级算力的Neoclouds令人费解。

07:26 07-30

市场偏好自由现金流与回购，Meta长期增长值得等待

@aleabitoreddit 帖子 @highonlifedeal2 True, right now markets just want FCF + large warchests or dividends/buybacks I guess, like $AAPL. I'd agree with Zuckerberg that although it compresses near term FCF, they'll be rewarded over time with long term growth. As a shareholder, probably better to prioritize long

推文同意当前市场偏好自由现金流、大额现金储备或分红回购，如$AAPL。但作者赞同扎克伯格观点，尽管AI投资压缩近期自由现金流，长期增长将带来回报。作为股东，应优先考虑长期。

尽管压缩近期自由现金流，但长期增长会带来回报。

07:13 07-30

META与MSFT财报电话会要点：微软预计2027年FCF转正

@aleabitoreddit 帖子 Just some takeaways from $META | $MSFT earnings calls: Microsoft: - Expected to be FCF positive in 2027, despite the increase in capex (extremely positive for AI buildout that it's funded by operating income) - "Free cash flow was $19.6 billion, reflecting higher capital https://t.co/bbY3WLvoMr

微软预计2027年自由现金流转正，尽管资本支出增加（对AI建设极为利好，由运营收入支撑）。自由现金流为196亿美元，反映资本支出增加。

微软预计2027年自由现金流转正，尽管资本支出增加，这对AI建设极为利好。

05:40 07-30

AXTI与Coherent及Lumentum签订长期协议，获1.09亿美元预付款

@aleabitoreddit 帖子 @wz2013 $AXTI secured LTA with $COHR earlier, with a $22.3M reservation payment. As well as a LTA with $LITE today, totaling $87M ($43.5M + $43.5M) again to reserve capacity. Considering that these are both of the two leading optical players, seems positive. The actual details such

AXTI 先后与 $COHR（Coherent）和 $LITE（Lumentum）签订长期协议（LTA），分别获得 2230 万美元和 8700 万美元（分两笔各 4350 万美元）的产能预留付款。这两家公司均为光学领域头部企业，消息面偏积极。

考虑到这两家都是领先的光学厂商，消息面似乎偏积极。

04:35 07-30

NBIS 处于算力瓶颈中心，基本面强劲

@aleabitoreddit 帖子 @LeaderInvests I personally quite like their fundamental position right now after Mirantis acquisition, existing GW scale capacity, and leaked Anthropic memos of securing compute in places like Australia. They’re sitting right in the middle of a massive bottleneck. As a proud shareholder,

作者认为 NBIS 在收购 Mirantis、拥有 GW 级产能以及 Anthropic 在澳大利亚等地寻求算力的背景下，基本面良好，正处于巨大瓶颈的中心。

他们正处在一个巨大瓶颈的正中心。

02:10 07-30

美联储维持利率不变，市场等待鲍威尔讲话

@aleabitoreddit 帖子 Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. So far so good, since markets would have sold off on an immediate rate hike (seem to have largely frontran hike expectations off already). Think everyone is waiting for the Fed Chair commentary now. https://t.co/2bZtg5UKEb

美联储将利率维持在3.50%-3.75%不变。市场此前已消化加息预期，因此未出现抛售。所有人都在等待美联储主席的评论。

市场此前已基本消化加息预期，因此未出现抛售。

01:35 07-30

全球AI去杠杆波及高贝塔股$AAOI

@aleabitoreddit 帖子 @nicomejia_ Global indiscriminate AI deleveraging right now, $AAOI is one of the high-beta names affected. I'd personally be surprised to say the least if they do $5.6B annualized revenue in 2027 (off of $471m/month projections), and remain a $6.3B company. $LITE annualized right now is

全球AI去杠杆正在无差别进行，$AAOI等高贝塔股受影响。作者质疑其2027年能否实现56亿美元年化收入（基于每月4.71亿美元的预测），并维持63亿美元市值。$LITE当前年化收入数据未完整。

如果$AAOI在2027年实现56亿美元年化收入（基于每月4.71亿美元的预测），并保持63亿美元市值，我会非常惊讶。

01:23 07-30

美国政府入股格芯，CPO成算力供应链重点

@aleabitoreddit 帖子 @Yeshuaisking11 I kinda expected it for critical minerals since Western needs as much subsidies as possible to compete with China. US Gov taking a stake in $GFS for CPO was not on my calendar. But it does go to show CPO becoming a compute supply chain priority and they made Globalfoundries a

推文指出，西方为与中国竞争关键矿产需要大量补贴，而美国政府入股GlobalFoundries（$GFS）涉足CPO（共封装光学）出乎意料，但这表明CPO正成为算力供应链的优先事项。

美国政府入股$GFS涉足CPO出乎意料，但表明CPO正成为算力供应链优先事项。

01:11 07-30

美国政府入股 $GFS 推进 CPO，股价却下跌

@aleabitoreddit 帖子 @4intheflames I don't own $GFS, but I'm personally it's surprised it's still down on the news US Gov is taking a direct stake in them for advancing CPO. Surprising to say the least, given everyone remembers $INTC as the latest foundry the US Gov liked.

作者不持有 $GFS，但对其在美国政府直接入股推进 CPO 后股价仍下跌感到意外，因为此前 $INTC 作为美国政府青睐的晶圆厂曾受追捧。

美国政府直接入股 $GFS 推进 CPO，股价却下跌，令人意外。

01:07 07-30

美国政府将获$GFS 1%股权并拨款3亿美元，利好$SIVE/$LITE

@aleabitoreddit 帖子 US Gov to take 1% stake in $GFS, and award them $300m for the US CHIPS ACT. This is actually a strong read through on $SIVE / $LITE, given this CHIPS ACT is specifically aimed at advancing CPO + Silicon Photonics. (For reference, Sivers and Lumentum were the only two public https://t.co/QZq8bn0exB

美国政府将通过CHIPS法案获得$GFS 1%股权，并授予其3亿美元，该法案旨在推进CPO和硅光子技术。这对$SIVE和$LITE是强利好信号，因为它们是该领域仅有的两家上市公司。

这对$SIVE/$LITE是强利好信号，因为CHIPS法案专门针对CPO和硅光子技术。

翻译内容仅供参考